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Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another pretty ugly day for many across the bluegrass state as one storm system slowly pulls away. As it moves to our northeast, the next one rolls in from the west late Sunday. This will bring one heck of a temperature spread and a shot of winter weather for some.
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Let’s begin with today’s rain as it pushes across central and eastern Kentucky. As low pressure deepens to the northeast, the air gets cold enough for a few flakes in the northeast. Later in the afternoon, the action becomes more scattered from west to east…
Sunday starts quiet, but ends with a bit increase in the action as our winter storm targets the Ohio Valley. Rain, snow and a mix of precipitation works from west to east late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The north sees mainly snow, with the south seeing mainly rain. In between will be a mixed bag. Here’s the early look at how that may play out…
Accumulating snow is a good bet across parts of the north during this time.
As the low works into Kentucky and West Virginia on Monday, we are going to see a mega temperature spread from north to south. We may see a better than 30 degree difference from northern Kentucky to far southeastern Kentucky. Rain will be the primary precipitation type on Monday.
Once the low goes by to the east, much colder air swings back in from the northwest, giving us some wraparound snow Monday night into Tuesday.
The GFS Ensembles show the whole scenario pretty well…
Here’s the snow map from the GFS Ensembles through Tuesday…
The European Model is similar in bringing our swath of accumulating snow into northern Kentucky. It’s also a little flatter and farther south with the low, keeping the mixed precip line close to northern Kentucky through the entire event. It’s also beginning to see the flakes behind the system…
Euro Snow Map…
The Canadian is similar to the above models and looks a lot like the GFS Ensembles with some wraparound light stuff. Once again, check out the stripe of decent snow across northern Kentucky…
It’s been pretty cool to watch the GFS do what we thought it would do and come way south. A few days ago, the model had a low near Detroit. Now it’s crossing eastern Kentucky instead…
The GFS snow map is coming in line with most of the other guidance in targeting northern Kentucky…
As expected, Northern Kentucky is in the best zone for snow and winter weather with this system. Can it still come a little farther south? Yes, but I don’t expect some major deviation at this point.
My midday update may be a little delayed because I will be ringing the Salvation Army Bell at the Fayette Mall today from noon-2. Come on out and say hi and put some money in the kettle and do a little good this Christmas season. 🙂
Have a good one and take care.
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